A Great Case For Durable Goods Irrelevance

If there were any remaining doubts regarding the relevance of Durable Goods as a big ticket market mover, they are put to rest by the absence of a discernible reaction despite a very big beat. In other words, +0.7 vs -0.8 is significant, but the market movement has been nil. Granted, the negative revision to last month was even bigger, but markets always prefer the most recent data–especially when we’re actively waiting for the first sign of some sort of big, fundamental shift in inflation and growth. 

Unless another threat emerges to drive selling pressure, we have a good chance of fulfilling the 11-day weekend prophecy (a grossly hyperbolic way to refer to a 4.34-4.50 trading range in 10yr yields this week).